1. Population Growth over Time
2. Components of Population Growth
3. Influence of International and Domestic Immigration
4. Effect of Employment on Population Growth
5. Racial and Ethnic Composition
6. Future Population Trends
Data Sources
Glossary
Acknowledgments
Appendix
Figure 1. Counties in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area (click to enlarge)
This article offers a descriptive overview of population dynamics in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The MSA includes five of Oregon’s 36 counties–Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill, as well as Clark and Skamania counties in the state of Washington (see Figure 1).[1]
The article describes current trends for population growth; the effect of births, deaths, and migration on population growth; and how the age, sex, and ethnic composition of the population are changing. We concentrate on describing population trends rather than speculating on the causes of population change or making population predictions. An understanding of population dynamics can inform policy-making, and we hope we can provide a solid basis of understanding for decision-makers and community members in the Portland region.
Highlights
- The Portland-Vancouver MSA has grown at least as fast as the United States since 1930, sometimes growing at double the speed of the nation.
- During the 1990s, Clark and Washington counties experienced the greatest population increase among the region’s counties, at 45% and 43% respectively—considerably greater than the MSA population growth of 23%. These two counties continued to outpace the rest of the Portland-Vancouver MSA from 2000 to 2008.
- Domestic migration plays an important role in demographic change in the entire region. It has been a major driver of population growth in Clark, Clackamas, and Columbia counties.
- By contrast, natural increase—the surplus of births of over deaths—has driven recent growth in Multnomah and Washington counties.
- International migration plays a significant role in Multnomah and Washington counties. In Multnomah County, international migration offsets the net loss of residents who migrated to other counties in the United States.
- Population levels are sensitive to fluctuations in the economy. When the economy falters in the Portland-Vancouver MSA, there is a decrease in in-migration and a shift to natural increase
- The overall minority population in the Portland-Vancouver MSA grew by 40.7% between 2000 and 2008, more than seven times the percentage increase for the overall metropolitan region population growth (5.4%) during the same period.
1. Population Growth over Time
Metropolitan Portland-Vancouver has grown at least as fast as the United States since 1930, sometimes growing at double the fspeed of the nation. Since the 19figth century, Oregon, like much of the West Coast, has been a destination for migrants seeking economic opportunity and lifestyle amenities. The Portland region’s growth rates tend to follow the state of Oregon’s growth rates, partly because the region is home to a large share of the state population. Figure 2 compares the rate of growth of the Portland-Vancouver region, the state of Oregon, and the USA. Figure 3 present the decade-by-decade population individual counties within the Portland-Vancouver MSA since 1930. Table 1 in the appendix gives numerical detail by county.
Figure 2. Population Change in Portland-Vancouver MSA, Oregon, and the USA 1930-2008
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Figure 3. Population in the Portland-Vancouver MSA by County
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
In the 1980s, the economic downturn affected the state of Oregon’s population, which grew at a slower pace over the decade (7.9%) than the population of the USA as a whole (10.4%). However, the Portland-Vancouver region’s population still grew faster than the overall US population during the 1980s.
Between 1990 and 2000, Oregon’s population grew by 20% and the Portland-Vancouver region’s population grew by 27%, which greatly outpaced US population growth of 13% over the same decade. During the 1990s, Clark and Washington counties experienced the greatest population increase among the regional counties, at 45% and 43% respectively, outpacing the region dramatically.
Clark and Washington counties continued to outpace the rest of the Portland-Vancouver region from 2000 to 2008. Since 2000, population growth has slowed in all of metropolitan Portland-Vancouver to 1.6% per year from 2000 to 2008, in contrast to the annualized rate of 2.1% per year from 1990 to 2000. One of the most important drivers of migration for adults is job availability. Thus, given the current economic climate in Oregon, population growth is not likely to increase before the next census in 2010. Population will likely continue to grow, but at a lower rate per year. Official State of Oregon population forecasts reflect the new assumptions about a decline in migration due to lower employment.[2]
The share of population growth in the Portland-Vancouver MSA has shifted to different counties over the course of the region’s history. The population within the Portland-Vancouver MSA has spread from the urban core. Figure 4 shows each county’s proportion of the total Portland-Vancouver regional population. Suburban counties within the Portland-Vancouver MSA have taken a greater proportion of the entire population. Table 2 in the appendix gives more detail about population growth rates by county.
Figure 4. Proportion of Population in the Portland-Vancouver MSA by County, 1930-2008
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
A large percentage of the Portland-Vancouver MSA’s population has gradually shifted from Multnomah County to the outlying counties in the past 80 years. In 2008, only about 33% of the population lived in Multnomah County, down from 59% in 1960. Washington County has experienced dramatic growth over the past few decades, growing from 10% of the region’s population in 1960 to 24% of the population of the Portland-Vancouver MSA in 2008.
2. Components of Population Growth
Population growth includes two components: natural increase (births minus deaths), and net migration (in-migration minus out-migration). In Oregon and the Portland-Vancouver region, migration has been at least as important as natural increase through births since the region’s settlement in the 19th century. However, natural increase can become more important than migration whenever the economy experiences a downturn, since fewer people are inclined to migrate to a destination with high unemployment.[3] Oregon’s economy faltered in the 1980s, leading to a corresponding decrease in total growth and a shift to natural increase. In the 1990s, the Portland region experienced an economic boom, attracting new residents through migration. In the 2000s, a middle ground emerged between these two extremes as the economy slowed in the early part of the decade and then subsequently recovered.
Mortality and life expectancy levels have remained steady in the metropolitan Portland-Vancouver area for the past two decades. The crude death rate, the number of deaths per 1,000 residents for a single year, has remained at about 8 per 1,000 people since 1980. In 2005, Life expectancy at birth in Oregon was 75.7 years for men and 80.2 years for women,[4] which is slightly higher than the U.S. average.
Fertility in the Portland-Vancouver MSA is relatively constant, though less stable than mortality. In 2006, Oregon had a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.98 children per woman over a lifetime—a little bit lower than the “replacement rate” of about 2.1.[5] If women have children at current rates in the long term, the population will decrease slowly unless it is augmented by in-migration. In the long term, only regions with low in-migration rates feel the effects of increases in the total fertility rate over the long term. The crude birth rate varies by county partly due to varying social characteristics such as education levels and age structure.[6]
Table 4 uses these data to calculate demographic rates (in terms of events per 1000 persons per year). As an example of natural increase and migration dynamics, consider Clark and Washington counties, both counties with high population growth rates. In Clark County, migration greatly effects population change, since 17.9 people move in each year for every 1000 people already living in Clark County, versus 8.9 moving into Washington County. In Washington County, natural increase contributes more to population growth than migration, with 10.4 net births per 1000 in Washington County compared with 7.8 net births per 1000 in Clark County. The data show that more established communities have a higher proportion of natural increase because they typically have less room for new housing and new migrants. Figure 4 compares the crude rate of natural increase and the crude migration rate by county. Table 3 in the appendix gives more detail about crude births, deaths, natural increase, and migration for each county between 2000-2008. Table 4 in the appendix provides numerical detail for the factors driving migration by county between 2000 and 2008.
Figure 5. Crude Rates of Natural Increase and Migration in Portland-Vancouver MSA by County, per 1000 People, 2000-2008
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Although migration plays an important role throughout the metropolitan region, its importance varies by county. Natural increase drives growth in Multnomah and Washington counties whereas migration primarily drives growth in Clark, Clackamas, and Columbia counties. Migration is more complex than natural increase, because it is driven by political, cultural, and economic factors. Typically, rates of natural increase and their components change slowly, while migration rates are more volatile. Figure 6 shows the percent of population growth between 2000 and 2008 from natural increase and net migration.
Figure 6: Percent of Population Growth Due to Natural Increase vs. Net Migration by County, 2000 to 2008
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
The percent of population growth driven by net migration has fluctuated dramatically in the Portland-Vancouver MSA and Oregon as a whole since 1980, as shown in Figure 7. In the appendix, Tables 5 and 6 provide the detailed population dynamic data for the decade from 1990 to 1999, and Tables 7 and 8 provide data for the decade from 1980 to 1989.
Figure 7. Natural Increase vs. Net Migration in Portland-Vancouver MSA, Oregon, and Washington State, 1980-2008
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
3. Influence of International and Domestic Immigration
Some Portland-Vancouver counties have large numbers of people moving to the county from within the United States (“domestic migration”), while some counties have large numbers of people settling in the county after relocating from outside the USA (“international migration”). Multnomah County lost population due to domestic migration—people moving from Multnomah to other counties—while it gained international population. Washington County has large numbers of international migrants, while most of the people moving into Clackamas County were moving from somewhere in the USA. Table 9 in the appendix and Figure 8 summarize the migration dynamics in the seven-county region from 2000 to 2009.[7]
Figure 8. International and Domestic Migration in the Portland-Vancouver MSA by County, 2000-2008
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey. 2005-2007 PUMS data.
Foreign-born residents represent a significant portion of the Portland-Vancouver MSA’s population. As shown in Table 20, the 2005-2007 data from the ACS show that foreign-born residents represent about 13.6% of the population of the region, compared to 10.5% of the population of Oregon. Within Oregon, approximately 105,000 were unauthorized, with over 95% of the undocumented coming from Mexico and other Central and South American countries (Warren, 2009).
The majority of people living in the Portland-Vancouver MSA were not born in Oregon. Table 10 shows estimates of migration from various states and countries, at least for the PUMAs that are within the Portland-Vancouver region. For example, 40% of all the residents of the region were born in Oregon, while 11% were born in Washington State.).[8] Notably, 1.2% of the region’s residents were born in Minnesota, nearly the same percentage as were born in New York, a much more populous state.
Table 10. Top 20 Places of Birth for Residents of the Portland-Vancouver MSA 2005-2007
| Place of Birth | Percent |
|---|---|
| All USA | 86.39% |
| … OR | 39.82% |
| … WA | 10.82% |
| … CA | 10.71% |
| … IL | 1.56% |
| … NY | 1.55% |
| … TX | 1.51% |
| … ID | 1.19% |
| … MN | 1.16% |
| … MI | 1.00% |
| … CO | 0.94% |
| … All other USA and Territories | 16.13% |
| All Foreign Born | 13.62% |
| … Mexico | 3.83% |
| … Vietnam | 0.85% |
| … Korea | 0.67% |
| … Ukraine | 0.67% |
| … Canada | 0.64% |
| … China | 0.54% |
| … Philippines | 0.50% |
| … India | 0.46% |
| … Germany | 0.44% |
| … Russia | 0.39% |
| … All other non-USA | 4.63% |
| Total | 100% (86.39% + 13.62%) |
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey. 2005-2007 PUMS data
4. Effects of Employment on Population Change
Prolonged periods of high unemployment have driven regional population growth rates. Figure 10 shows unemployment in the USA, Oregon, and the Portland-Vancouver MSA. There are three spikes in unemployment—around 1982, 1993, and 2002. The years with highest unemployment correspond to the decade with the lowest population growth—the 1980s. The 1990s have the lowest unemployment overall, reflected in rapid population growth. Oregon, and especially the seven-county region, felt the effects of the dot-com bust in 2002 and 2003 more strongly than the 1991 recession. The moderate population growth from 2000 to 2008 reflects the recession of the early part of the decade. We can see a slight uptick in unemployment in 2008, and the unemployment for 2009 soars to 1983 levels, so we can expect there to be correspondingly much slower population growth in the next few years. However, the seven-county region remains a destination for many migrants for its many amenities, dampening the effect of the local economy on population change.
Figure 9. U.S., Oregon, and Metropolitan Portland-Vancouver Unemployment Rates
Source: State of Oregon, Oregon Employment Department.
5. Racial and Ethnic Composition of the Portland-Vancouver MSA
The metropolitan Portland-Vancouver area population has a less ethnically diverse population than many other major metropolitan areas in the United States. However, the minority population has increased in every county in the Portland-Vancouver MSA in the last 30 years. The overall minority population increased from 360,000 people in 2000 to 507,202 people in 2008, an increase of 40.7%. This figure includes Asian Americans, Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders, Hispanics, African Americans, American Indians, and persons reporting two or more races. During this period, minority populations grew more than seven times faster than the overall population of the Portland-Vancouver MSA, which grew by 5.4% during the same period.
The minority population in the Portland-Vancouver MSA is quite heterogeneous. Almost all the African American and American Indian residents in metropolitan Portland-Vancouver were born within the United States. Many Asian American and Hispanic residents, however, are foreign-born. Table 11 in the appendix shows the racial composition of the Portland-Vancouver MSA.
Latinos are the fastest growing minority population because of domestic and international migration, as well as fertility levels above the Oregon state average. The Hispanic population grew by 10.9% between 1990 and 2000 and 6.0% between 2000 and 2008. Figure 10 shows the population growth rates of different race and ethnic groups between 1990, 2000 and 2008. Asian Americans are the second-largest minority population in the metropolitan area.[9] The region receives immigrants from Vietnam, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Philippines, and Japan as well as Asian Americans who move here from other states. American Indians have remained a small but important minority in the Portland-Vancouver region. African Americans are the third largest minority population in the metropolitan area, numbering 53,892 in 2000, increasing from 42,785 in 1990.
Prior to the 2000 Census, there were no accurate estimates for the number of Oregonians who identify with two or more racial or ethnic groups. In the 2000 Census, 80% of residents in Portland and Oregon reported themselves as white. However, 3.3% of the population, or 53,480 people in the metropolitan Portland-Vancouver area, identified themselves as having two or more races in the 2000 census.[10]
Figure 10. Percent Non-White by Year in the Portland-Vancouver MSA, 1990-2008
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
6. Future Population Trends
Due to the recent economic downturn, the State of Oregon is currently revising the official population forecast and forecasts are currently unavailable at the regional level.[11] Preliminary results project that Oregon as a whole will grow 1.0% in 2010, 1.2% in 2011, and then stabilize at a yearly rate of about 1.2% per year until 2015. If we assume that the Portland-Vancouver Metro region will have similar growth levels, we can forecast a total population of 2,369,578 in 2015 for the region.
Data Sources
In this report, we use official state population estimates from Washington and Oregon and U.S. Census data from the decennial Census and the yearly county estimates program. This article does not cover Yamhill, Columbia, or Skamania counties, because these small-population counties belong to PUMAs that also include large areas outside of the Portland-Vancouver region.[12]
Glossary
Annualized Growth. “Annualized growth” is the percentage growth that occurs each year during a period, calculated from two points which are more than a single year apart using the geometric average. For example, above we see that the annualized growth for the region between 1980 and 1990 was 1.3% – this means that in each year during that decade, the region added 1.3% more people than the previous year. Obviously, growth rates change from year to year, with some years higher and some lower; these are averaged together in “annualized growth” numbers.
Natural Increase. “Natural increase” is the amount by which the population changes that is NOT due to migration (people entering the population after they are born somewhere else). It is calculated by subtracting the number of deaths in a year from the number of births in the same year.
PUMA. A PUMA (Public Use Microdata Area) is a region designed to contain about 100,000 people at the 2000 Census, and is the level of geography specified in the one and three year pooled PUMS data. The Census Bureau withholds finer grained detail regarding location in order to protect the confidentiality of the survey respondents; otherwise, an analyst might be able to learn private details about a person and find that person through the PUMS data.
PUMS Data. PUMS (Public Use Microdata Sample) data are a copy of about half of the individual responses to the ACS questionnaire, along with some other variables added by the Census Bureau. These data allow us to create custom analyses, rather than rely on tabulations made by the Census Bureau.
Rate. A “rate” is a measure of how often an even happens for each unit of “exposure.” Exposure, in turn, refers to how many people are alive for a year. In order to calculate the mortality rate in 2006, for example, we would divide the number of deaths in the year by the number of people alive in the same year. We can calculate rates for many different events, including migration, fertility, marriage, etc.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank Vivian Siu, Nancy Hales, Charles Rynerson, Sarah Iannarone, Emily Renfrow, and Lisa Yarbrough for their many helpful comments. Any errors are the responsibility of the author.
Appendix
Table 1. Population in the Portland-Vancouver MSA by County, 1930-2008 (Jump Back)
| Year | Portland-Vancouver MSA | OR | USA | Skamania | Columbia | Yamhill | Clackamas | Clark | Washington | Multnomah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1930 | 500,011 | 953,786 | 123,100,000 | 2,891 | 20,047 | 22,036 | 46,205 | 40,316 | 30,275 | 338,241 |
| 1940 | 553,215 | 1,089,684 | 131,669,275 | 4,633 | 20,971 | 26,336 | 57,130 | 49,852 | 39,194 | 355,099 |
| 1950 | 766,068 | 1,521,341 | 150,697,361 | 4,788 | 22,967 | 33,484 | 86,716 | 85,307 | 61,269 | 471,537 |
| 1960 | 881,961 | 1,768,687 | 178,464,236 | 5,207 | 22,379 | 32,478 | 113,038 | 93,809 | 92,237 | 522,813 |
| 1970 | 1,081,978 | 2,091,533 | 203,302,031 | 5,845 | 28,790 | 40,213 | 166,088 | 128,454 | 157,920 | 554,668 |
| 1980 | 1,341,550 | 2,633,156 | 226,545,805 | 7,919 | 35,646 | 55,332 | 241,919 | 192,227 | 245,860 | 562,647 |
| 1990 | 1,523,741 | 2,842,337 | 250,132,000 | 8,289 | 37,557 | 65,551 | 278,850 | 238,053 | 311,554 | 583,887 |
| 2000 | 1,927,836 | 3,421,399 | 281,424,000 | 9,827 | 43,560 | 84,992 | 338,391 | 345,238 | 445,342 | 660,486 |
| 2008 | 2,191,785 | 3,791,075 | 304,059,000 | 10,700 | 48,095 | 94,325 | 376,660 | 424,200 | 519,925 | 717,880 |
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Table 2. Population Change per Decade in Portland-Vancouver MSA, Oregon, USA and Portland-Vancouver MSA counties, 1930-2008 (Jump Back)
| Decade | Portland-Vancouver MSA | Annualized growth (% per year) |
Oregon | USA | Skamania | Columbia | Yamhill | Clackamas | Clark | Washington | Multnomah |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1930 – 1940 | 10.6% | 1.0% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 60.3% | 4.6% | 19.5% | 23.6% | 23.7% | 29.5% | 5.0% |
| 1940 – 1950 | 38.5% | 3.3% | 39.6% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 9.5% | 27.4% | 51.8% | 71.1% | 56.3% | 32.8% |
| 1950 – 1960 | 15.1% | 1.4% | 16.3% | 18.4% | 8.8% | -2.6% | -3.0% | 30.4% | 10.0% | 50.5% | 10.9% |
| 1960 – 1970 | 22.7% | 2.1% | 18.2% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 28.7% | 23.8% | 46.9% | 36.9% | 71.2% | 6.1% |
| 1970 – 1980 | 24.0% | 2.2% | 25.9% | 11.4% | 35.5% | 23.8% | 37.6% | 45.7% | 0.5% | 55.7% | 1.4% |
| 1980 – 1990 | 13.9% | 1.3% | 7.9% | 0.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 18.5% | 15.3% | 0.2% | 26.7% | 3.8% |
| 1990 – 2000 | 26.5% | 2.4% | 20.4% | 10.4% | 18.6% | 16.0% | 29.7% | 21.4% | 0.5% | 42.9% | 13.1% |
| 2000 – 2008 | 13.7% | 1.6% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 22.9% | 16.8% | 8.6% |
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Table 3. Crude Rates in Portland-Vancouver MSA by County (Events per 1000 per Year), 2000-2008 (Jump Back)
| Crude Birth Rate | Crude Death Rate | Crude Rate of Natural Increase | Crude Migration Rate | Crude Growth Rate |
Median age | Annualized growth (% per year) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clackamas | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 9.6 | 13.4 | 38.9 | 1.3% |
| Columbia | 11.5 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 39.5 | 1.2% |
| Multnomah | 14.5 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 10.4 | 36.9 | 1.0% |
| Washington | 16.3 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 19.3 | 35.0 | 1.9% |
| Yamhill | 14.0 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 13.0 | 34.9 | 1.3% |
| Clark | 14.4 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 17.9 | 25.7 | 35.1 | 2.5% |
| Skamania | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | n/a | 1.0% |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA | 14.3 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 16.0 | n/a | 1.6% |
| Oregon | 13.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 12.8 | 38.0 | 1.3% |
| Washington | 14.1 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 14.7 | 36.8 | 1.4% |
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Table 4. Components of Population Change, 2000-2008 (Jump Back)
| July 1, 2008 Population Estimate | April 1, 2000 Census Population | Population Change 2000-08 | Percent Change 2000-08 | Births 2000-08 | Deaths 2000-08 | Natural Increase 2000-08 | Net Migration 2000-08 | Percent Migration | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clackamas | 376,660 | 338,391 | 38,269 | 11.3% | 33,459 | 22,766 | 10,693 | 27,576 | 72.1% |
| Columbia | 48,095 | 43,560 | 4,535 | 10.4% | 4,213 | 3,212 | 1,001 | 3,534 | 77.9% |
| Multnomah | 717,880 | 660,486 | 57,394 | 8.7% | 79,875 | 46,178 | 33,697 | 23,697 | 41.3% |
| Washington | 519,925 | 445,342 | 74,583 | 16.7% | 62,774 | 22,667 | 40,107 | 34,476 | 46.2% |
| Yamhill | 94,325 | 84,992 | 9,333 | 11.0% | 10,039 | 6,005 | 4,034 | 5,299 | 56.8% |
| Clark | 424,200 | 345,238 | 78,962 | 22.9% | 44,370 | 20,491 | 23,879 | 55,083 | 69.8% |
| Skamania | 10,700 | 9,872 | 828 | 8.4% | 847 | 597 | 250 | 578 | 69.8% |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA | 2,191,785 | 1,927,881 | 263,904 | 13.7% | 235,577 | 12,1916 | 113,661 | 150,243 | 56.9% |
| Oregon | 3,791,075 | 3,421,399 | 369,676 | 10.8% | 384,725 | 252,545 | 132,180 | 237,496 | 64.2% |
| Washington | 6,587,600 | 5,894,143 | 693,457 | 11.8% | 662,802 | 365,571 | 297,231 | 396,226 | 57.1% |
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Table 5. Components of Population Change, 1990-1999 (Jump Back)
| April 1, 2000 Census Population | April 1, 1990 Census Population | Population Change 1990-2000 | Percent Change 1990-2000 | Births 1990-2000 | Deaths 1990-2000 | Natural Increase 1990-2000 | Net Migration 1990-2000 | Percent Migration | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clackamas | 338,391 | 278,850 | 59,541 | 21.4% | 40,009 | 23,244 | 16,765 | 42,776 | 71.8% |
| Columbia | 43,560 | 37,557 | 6,003 | 16.0% | 4,857 | 3,154 | 1,703 | 4,300 | 71.6% |
| Multnomah | 660,486 | 583,887 | 76,599 | 13.1% | 91,434 | 57,331 | 34,103 | 42,496 | 55.5% |
| Washington | 445,342 | 311,554 | 133,788 | 42.9% | 6,1163 | 23,141 | 38,022 | 95,766 | 71.6% |
| Yamhill | 84,992 | 65,551 | 19,441 | 29.7% | 10,514 | 5,902 | 4,612 | 14,829 | 76.3% |
| Clark | 345,238 | 238,053 | 107,185 | 45.0% | 46,752 | 20,199 | 26,553 | 80,632 | 75.2% |
| Skamania | 9,872 | 8,289 | 1,583 | 19.1% | 919 | 623 | 296 | 1,287 | 81.3% |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA | 1,927,881 | 1,523,741 | 404,140 | 26.5% | 255,648 | 133,594 | 122,054 | 282,086 | 69.8% |
| Oregon | 3,421,399 | 2,842,321 | 579,078 | 20.4% | 430,949 | 273,323 | 157,626 | 421,452 | 72.8% |
| Washington | 5,894,121 | 4,866,669 | 1,027,452 | 21.1% | 810,028 | 414,404 | 395,623 | 631,829 | 61.5% |
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Table 6. Components of Population Change, 1980-1989
| April 1, 1990 Census Population | April 1, 1980 Census Population | Population Change 1980-1990 | Percent Change 1980-1990 | Births 1980-1990 | Deaths 1980-1990 | Natural Increase 1980-1990 | Net Migration 1980-1990 | Percent Migration | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clackamas | 278,850 | 241,911 | 36,939 | 15.3% | 34,328 | 18,598 | 15,730 | 21,209 | 57.5% |
| Columbia | 37,557 | 35,646 | 1,911 | 5.4% | 5,179 | 3,042 | 2,137 | -226 | n/a |
| Multnomah | 583,887 | 562,647 | 21,240 | 3.8% | 88,129 | 56,705 | 31,424 | -10,184 | n/a |
| Washington | 311,554 | 245,860 | 65,694 | 26.7% | 43,651 | 16,380 | 27,271 | 38,423 | 58.5% |
| Yamhill | 65,551 | 55,332 | 10,219 | 18.5% | 9,410 | 5,023 | 4,387 | 5,832 | 57.1% |
| Clark | 238,053 | 192,227 | 45,826 | 23.8% | 33,169 | 14,547 | 18,622 | 27,204 | 59.4% |
| Skamania | 8,289 | 7,919 | 370 | 4.7% | 1,142 | 469 | 673 | -303 | n/a |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA | 1,523,741 | 1,341,542 | 182,199 | 13.6% | 215,008 | 114,764 | 100,244 | 81,955 | 45.0% |
| Oregon | 2,842,321 | 2,633,156 | 209,165 | 7.9% | 404,185 | 231,987 | 172,198 | 36,967 | 17.7% |
| Washington | 4,866,692 | 4,132,353 | 734,339 | 17.8% | 704,532 | 339,797 | 364,735 | 369,604 | 50.3% |
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Table 7. Crude rates by County 1990-1999 (Jump Back)
| Crude Birth Rate | Crude Death Rate | Crude Rate of Natural Increase | Crude Migration Rate | Crude Growth Rate | Annualized growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clackamas | 16.2 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 17.3 | 24. | 2.0% |
| Columbia | 15.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 13.3 | 18.5 | 1.5% |
| Multnomah | 18.4 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 15.4 | 1.2% |
| Washington | 20.2 | 7.6 | 12.6 | 31.6 | 44.2 | 3.6% |
| Yamhill | 17.5 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 24.6 | 32.3 | 2.6% |
| Clark | 20.0 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 34.6 | 45.9 | 3.8% |
| Skamania | 12.7 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 17.7 | 21.8 | 1.8% |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA | 18.5 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 20.4 | 29.3 | 2.4% |
| Oregon | 17.2 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 16.8 | 23.1 | 1.9% |
| Washington | 20.8 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 16.2 | 26.4 | 1.9% |
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Table 8. Crude rates by County 1980-1989
| Crude Birth Rate | Crude Death Rate | Crude Rate of Natural Increase | Crude Migration Rate | Crude Growth Rate | Annualized growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clackamas | 16.5 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 17.7 | 1.4% |
| Columbia | 17.7 | 10.4 | 7.3 | -0.8 | 6.5 | 0.5% |
| Multnomah | 19.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | -2.2 | 4.6 | 0.4% |
| Washington | 19.6 | 7.4 | 12.2 | 17.2 | 29.5 | 2.4% |
| Yamhill | 19.5 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 21.1 | 1.7% |
| Clark | 19.3 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 15.8 | 26.6 | 2.2% |
| Skamania | 17.6 | 7.2 | 10.4 | -4.7 | 5.7 | 0.5% |
| PDX Region | 18.8 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 15.9 | 1.3% |
| Oregon State | 18.5 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 9.6 | 0.8% |
| Washington State | 19.6 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 20.4 | 1.7% |
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Table 9. International and Domestic Migration in the Portland-Vancouver MSA by County, 2000-2008 (Jump Back)
| Total Net migration 2000-2008 | International migration | Domestic migration | Percent domestic migration | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 251,213 | 92,394 | 158,819 | 63% |
| … Clackamas County | 32,998 | 6,737 | 26,261 | 80% |
| … Columbia County | 4,844 | 86 | 4,758 | 98% |
| … Multnomah County | 24,150 | 29,396 | -5,246 | n/a |
| … Washington County | 45,603 | 22,456 | 23,147 | 51% |
| … Yamhill County | 9,558 | 2,288 | 7,270 | 76% |
| Washington | 365,045 | 166,335 | 198,710 | 54% |
| … Clark County | 56,996 | 10,449 | 46,547 | 82% |
| … Skamania County | 739 | 31 | 708 | 96% |
| PDX Region | 174,888 | 71,443 | 103,445 | 54% |
Source: US Census Bureau.
Table 11. Racial Composition of the Portland-Vancouver MSA (Jump Back)
| White | Black | American Indian | Asian and Pacific Islander | Other races + 2 or more | Non-Hispanic | Hispanic | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland-Vancouver MSA 1990 | 1,414,922 | 42,328 | 14,971 | 52,916 | N/A | 1,474,348 | 50,789 |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA 2000 | 1,714,306 | 53,716 | 18,265 | 96,147 | 51,504 | 1,785,039 | 142,842 |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA 2008 | 1,931,418 | 68,330 | 21,725 | 127,752 | 58,237 | 1,976,304 | 231,158 |
| Annualized % 1990-2000 | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 6.1% | N/A | 1.9% | 10.9% |
| Annualized % 2000-2008 | 0.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 6.0% |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA 1990 | 92.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 3.5% | N/A | 96.6% | 3.4% |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA 2000 | 89.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 93.1% | 6.9% |
| Portland-Vancouver MSA 2008 | 87.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 89.5% | 10.5% |
Source: Portland State Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, and Washington State Office of Financial Management.
Footnotes
- In 2007, the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton MSA was redefined to include Skamania County in Washington. For the sake of comparability, we have therefore derived all historical data as if this definition has always applied. Because of this change, many of our historical numbers may have shifted since the last report on Oregon demography in the 2007 Metropolitan Briefing Book. (↩)
- Office of Economic Analysis, 2009 (↩)
- Population growth depends on changes in three factors: births, deaths, and migration. The difference between births and deaths is called “natural increase.” Most modern populations have both low fertility and low mortality, with populations growing slowly from natural increase, though in the last couple of decades some countries in Europe, especially Eastern Europe, are experiencing population decrease due to low fertility combined with low migration. Unlike Eastern Europe, Oregon is a migration destination, so typically it has growth from both in-migration and natural increase. (↩)
- Oregon DHS 2006. (↩)
- Oregon DHS 2006. Timely data is unavailable at the county level for the TFR. (↩)
- For instance, counties with a less well-educated population will typically have higher fertility across all ages. A county with more women over the age of 40 or under the age of 20 will have lower fertility than a county with many women between 20 and 40, even if its age-specific fertility is higher due to lower overall education. (↩)
- Note that these numbers are “net” for the 2000-2008 period, and do not account for flows cancelling each other out; for example, if 100,000 international migrants moved into the seven-county region in 2001, and all of them then moved away in 2002, there would be no effect on this table. Note that the Population Research Center does not estimate international and domestic migration, so we have used numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau; these numbers will sum to slightly different totals than the other tables in the article, but they provide an important view of the relative proportions of migrants to the various counties and the seven-county region. (↩)
- Note that the percentages are calculated in terms of the entire regional population covered by the ACS (i.e., not including Yamhill, Columbia, and Skamania counties. In addition, when percentages are lower than 2%, there may be extensive sampling error in the estimates, though the ordering should be fairly stable. (↩)
- Pacific Islanders were a very small population group in Oregon in 2000, and we have aggregated their numbers with Asians in Table 11, in order to maintain comparability with race numbers from 1990. (↩)
- “Annualized rates” or “yearly percentage change” give the percent change per year over the course of the entire period in question, calculated using the geometric mean of the total percentage change. When we state that the yearly percentage change of Asians between 1990 and 2000 was 6.07%, we mean that if their population grew at 6.1% each year, by the time ten years had elapsed they would reach the population given for 2000. The reason we present this number, rather than the percentage change between decades, is that we can use it to compare rates of growth for intervals of different length, in this case between 1990 and 2000, and between 2000 and 2008. (↩)
- Office of Economic Analysis, 2009. (↩)
- Specifically, Yamhill County is in PUMA 01200, which also includes Polk County; Columbia County is in PUMA 00500, which includes Tillamook and Lincoln Counties, and Skamania County is in 01100, which also includes Wahkiakum, Cowlitz, and Klickitat Counties. Therefore, we leave these PUMAs out of our analysis. (↩)
