Figure 15: Total Non-farm Employment in the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Region, Seasonally Adjusted (January 2000-February 2009)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics.
Figure 16: Percent Change in Total Non-Farm Employment by County, March 2007 to March 2009 (not seasonally adjusted)
Source: Current Employment Statistics, March 2007 – March 2008. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 17: Percent Change in Total Non-farm Employment by MSA, February 2008 to February 2009 (not seasonally adjusted)
Source: Current Employment Statistics. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 18: Employment Trends in Portland and Comparator MSAs, 2001-2008 (Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: Current Employment Statistics, 2001-2008. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 19: 12 Month Job Growth Rates in the Portland Metropolitan area between February 2007 to February 2009, seasonally adjusted
Source: Current Economic Statistics, October 2007-October 2008, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Employment Growth
Employment growth measures the rate that a region’s economy is generating jobs for those who want to work. It is also a general indicator of a region’s economic vibrancy. However, region-wide averages of job growth sometimes fail to identify specific challenges and problems because job growth does not occur evenly across industry sectors or across the region. This section looks at aggregate employment as well as employment by industry sector and county.
4.1 Employment Growth in the Portland MSA
Employment growth in the Portland metropolitan region, as shown in Figure 15, was very strong from mid-2003, as we recovered from the last recession, until May of 2008, when employment peaked before beginning its current steep dive.
As shown in Figure 16, some counties in the Portland MSA saw modest employment growth between March 2007 and March 2008, notably Columbia County with a 1.8% growth in employment. Skamania County and to a lesser extent, Washington and Clark counties, saw declining employment already between 2007 and 2008. Between March 2008 and March 2009, every county in the Portland MSA showed a decline in employment growth. Columbia and Washington counties saw the steepest drop in employment at -5.9% and -5.6% respectively. Multnomah county saw a 3.1 percent decrease in employment, which was the smallest loss among the Portland MSA counties.
4.2 Employment Growth in Portland and its Comparator Metropolitan Areas
Regional Comparisons
Other metropolitan areas have also experienced job losses over the past year. Figure 17shows how the current recession has affected year-over-year total non-farm employment growth rates for each of the comparator MSAs. Between February 2007 and February 2008, most regions saw an increase in employment, with the exception of Minneapolis, which saw a decrease in employment of 0.08 percent, and Phoenix, which saw no change. Between February 2008 and February 2009, the trend was overwhelmingly negative for each of these metropolitan areas. Phoenix saw the greatest decrease in employment of 7.27 percent, followed by Denver with a 5.48 percent decrease. Portland ranked 4th out of these nine MSAs with a 3.4 percent decrease in employment.
Figure 18shows monthly changes in total seasonally adjusted employment for the Portland MSAs and eight of its comparator MSAs. The MSA average is displayed for reference. Overall Portland has followed the average employment growth patterns with a few major spikes and dips that are unique to the region. Major spikes in employment growth in the Portland MSA compared to other areas occurred in mid 2001, mid 2002, and early 2006. Most dips in employment growth in the Portland MSA seem magnified compared with the comparator MSA average.
Table 3: Total Non-farm Employment for Portland and Comparator Metropolitan Areas, annual average (in thousands) (not seasonally adjusted – includes all MSAs)
| Total Employment 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Total Employment 2008 | |
| Austin-Round Rock, TX | 669.6 | 658.9 | 656.3 | 676.9 | 699.1 | 737.7 | 766.3 | 780.6 |
| Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC | 774.6 | 777 | 772.6 | 786.4 | 808.9 | 844 | 871.5 | 877.9 |
| Denver-Aurora, CO | 1196.7 | 1172.1 | 1161.1 | 1177.6 | 1202.6 | 1225.3 | 1254.7 | 1257.9 |
| Las Vegas-Paradise, NV | 722.3 | 743.4 | 778.8 | 840.5 | 892.6 | 926.7 | 927.1 | 928.7 |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 1754.1 | 1736.2 | 1742.3 | 1764 | 1792.5 | 1801.1 | 1812.8 | 1797.4 |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | 1600.4 | 1608.3 | 1642.6 | 1725 | 1825.6 | 1907.9 | 1917.6 | 1866.1 |
| Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA | 960.8 | 951.4 | 943.8 | 973.4 | 1000.6 | 1031.7 | 1050.2 | 1039.9 |
| Salt Lake City, UT | 570.5 | 560.8 | 558.2 | 570.3 | 595.2 | 620.6 | 640.7 | 640.9 |
| San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA | 1225.4 | 1237.5 | 1249.9 | 1271.3 | 1287 | 1306.9 | 1313.1 | 1303.8 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 976.6 | 900.6 | 865.2 | 866.8 | 877.4 | 896.9 | 913.2 | 914.5 |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 1615.9 | 1585 | 1579.2 | 1607.9 | 1656.9 | 1706.7 | 1761.6 | 1760.1 |
Source: Current Employment Statistics, 2001-2008. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Industry Comparisons
In most recessions, not all sectors of the economy lose employment at the same rate. Some industries are, by nature, more cyclical than others, some are countercyclical, and some recessions disproportionately affect certain sectors (like the dot com bust in 2001-2003). Finally, some sectors respond to recessions more slowly than others; thus, their job losses may not occur until after losses are shown in other sectors.
As shown in Figure 19, the year-over-year change in employment over the past two years varies a great deal by sector. From 2007 to 2008, only mining and logging, manufacturing, construction, and financial activities lost jobs. From 2008 to 2009, only the government sector and the education and health care sector have gained employment; the construction sector and the professional and business services sector have lost the most jobs on a percentage basis in the past year.
Types of Employment Data
There are three main sources of employment data for the United States: Current Population Survey, Current Employment Survey, and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). You can compare source types in a concise table courtesy of the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development.
Current Population Survey or “Household Survey”
The Current Population Survey (CPS), or “Household Survey,” is the most comprehensive measure of national employment and unemployment. The data are collected using a survey with a sample size of 60,000 for the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older. The data are also used to calculate five alternate measures of unemployment as a percentage of the labor force based on different definitions.[1] People are classified as unemployed if they meet all of the following criteria:
- They were not employed during the reference week
- They were available for work at that time
- They made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. (The exception to this category covers persons laid off from a job and expecting recall)
- Those who are not classified as employed or unemployed are not counted as part of the labor force. They are tracked as “discouraged workers.”
The household survey has a more expansive scope than the establishment survey because it includes the self-employed, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers, and private household workers, who are excluded by the establishment survey. The household survey also provides estimates of employment for demographic groups. For more information, see the Current Population Survey FAQ:[2]
Current Employment Statistics or “Payroll Survey”
The Current Employment Statistics survey, or “Payroll Survey,” is based on a survey with a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.
This survey measures only nonagricultural, non-supervisory employment. It does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the International Labor Organization unemployment rate definition. Employment is defined as the total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. Temporary and intermittent employees are included, as are any workers who are on paid sick leave, on paid holiday, or who work during only part of the specified pay period. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data are also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report[3] available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration.
The establishment survey employment series has a smaller margin of error on the measurement of month-to-month change than does the household survey because of its much larger sample size. For more information see BLS Current Employment Statistics, please see the FAQ: [4]
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
The QCEW is a virtual census of employment in the United States, covering 99.7 percent of wage and salary civilian employment, available at the county, MSA, state and national levels by industry. The QCEW program derives its data from quarterly tax reports submitted to State Employment Security Agencies by over eight million employers subject to State unemployment insurance (UI) laws and from Federal agencies subject to the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) program.
The QCEW program is an employer reported measure and therefore associated with filled jobs, whether full or part-time, and place of work. If a person holds two jobs, the person would be counted twice in QCEW data. Programs that measure full-time equivalent positions or vacant positions target a different concept, as do household reported measures, which more typically show number of people with jobs, regardless of how many, and keep track of them by place or residence. The QCEW program, by definition, measures employment covered by Unemployment Insurance laws. In excluding self-employed jobs, and others, it differs significantly from those programs that include that employment.((Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Frequently Asked Questions. Bureau of Labor Statistics website. Retrieved on 2009-03-15.))
Conclusion
What can we say about the prosperity of the Portland region’s businesses based on the variety of data we have examined? The region’s prosperity demonstrates some strengths and a few weaknesses.
With a relatively low level of GDP per worker, it appears that the region’s productivity falls behind some of its competitors. One way to boost productivity is to increase innovation. And although the region ranks fifth in patenting per worker compared to its competitors, it is attracting relatively small amounts of venture capital, with only 152.2 million and 32 deals in 2008.
Innovation can only be boosted by the development and commercialization of good ideas, and the raw material for creating marketable ideas is educated people. With 33 percent of the adult population holding a Bachelor’s or higher degree, the Portland MSA ranks relatively high; twelve percent of adults have a graduate or professional degree. Only San Jose, Seattle and Austin rank higher in that category.
Entrepreneurs play a vital role in business prosperity by identifying market opportunities for good ideas, assembling the required human, innovation, and capital resources, and turning the idea into a viable business. While the Portland region seems to have a relatively low rate of new establishment births and very small (non-employer) businesses, it has a relatively large small business sector. In fact, compared to its competitors, the Portland region has the highest percentage of companies and the second highest percentage of payroll from firms that employ 20 or fewer employees.
The region’s small business sector appears to present opportunities for improving business prosperity by focusing on the issues confronting new and growing small businesses. Boosting the innovation and human capital resources available to these small businesses may be the key to improving business prosperity in the future.
As we emerge from the current recession, it will be interesting to gauge which industries recover most quickly and whether the small business sector leads the recovery in jobs.
Footnotes
- Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey Overview. Bureau of Labor Statistics website. Retrieved on 2009-03-15. (↩)
- Current Population Survey Frequently Asked Questions. Bureau of Labor Statistics website. Retrieved on 2009-03-15. (↩)
- Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Data. United States Department of Employment. Retrieved on 2009-03-15. (↩)
- Current Employment Statistics Frequently Asked Questions. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved on 2009-03-15. (↩)
